Mark Thompson wrote on Fri, Jun 11, 2010 11:29 PM UTC:
Flattery will get you somewhere ...
I believe it is possible to come up with betting schemes, for use in a
casino, that might give you a greater than 50% chance of ending with more
money than you began with. But that will necessarily mean that the
remaining possibilities, although they collectively have less than a 50%
chance, include losses that more than outweigh the likely winnings.
Probability theory defines a concept called 'expected value' which is the
sum, over all possible outcomes, of the product of that outcome's value,
times that outcome's probability. The expected value of the betting scheme
will not be positive, simply because it involves making a combination of
various bets that individually have negative expected values. The sum of
negative values can't be positive.
I feel pretty confident that the only reliable way to make money at casino
gambling is to get yourself a casino.
