Derek Nalls wrote on Tue, May 13, 2008 04:18 PM UTC:
Since I had to endure one of your long bedtime stories (to be sure),
you are going to have to endure one of mine. Yet unlike yours
[too incoherent to merit a reply], mine carries an important point:
Consider it a test of your common sense-
Here is a scenario ...
01. It is the year 2500 AD.
02. Androids exist.
03. Androids cannot tell lies.
04. Androids can cheat, though.
05. Androids are extremely intelligent in technical matters.
06. Your best friend is an android.
07. It tells you that it won the lottery.
08. You verify that it won the lottery.
09. It tells you that it purchased only one lottery ticket.
10. You verify that it purchased only one lottery ticket.
11. The chance of winning the lottery with only one ticket is 1 out of
100 million.
12. It tells you that it cheated to win the lottery by hacking into its
computer system immediately after the winning numbers were announced,
purchasing one winning ticket and back-dating the time of the purchase.
____________________________________________
You have only two choices as to what to believe happened-
A. The android actually won the lottery by cheating.
OR
B. The android actually won the lottery by good luck.
The android was mistaken in thinking it successfully cheated.
______________________________________________________
The chance of 'A' being true is 99,999,999 out of 100,000,000.
The chance of 'B' being true is 1 out of 100,000,000.
________________________________________________
I would place my bet upon 'A' being true
because I do not believe such unlikely coincidences
will actually occur.
You would place your bet upon 'B' being true
because you do not believe such unlikely coincidences
have any statistical significance whatsoever.
_________________________________________
I make this assessment of your judgment ability fairly because you think
it is a meaningless result if a player with one set of CRC piece values
wins against its opponent 10-times-in-a-row even as the chance of it being
'random good luck' is indisputably only 1 out of 1024.
By the way ...
base 2 to exponent 100 equals 1,267,650,600,228,229,401,496,703,205,376.
Can you see how ridiculous your demand of 100 games is?
