Check out Janggi (Korean Chess), our featured variant for November, 2024.

Enter Your Reply

The Comment You're Replying To
Joe Joyce wrote on Fri, Dec 15, 2017 12:31 AM UTC:

I agree, Aurelian. I think it's obvious that neural nets could 'easily' (with much hardware, time, and $$) play games like I've described at human level, and possibly a bit beyond. My point is that there are far too many indeterminacies for even the best neural nets to successfully predict game states (ie: what the opponent, or even the AI itself, will do in a couple of turns) for the software to consistently outperform the best humans or human teams. The game tree for even a specific game of Macysburg (a 32x32 abstract strategy war game riff on the Battle of Gettysburg during the American Civil War) is ridiculous. If AlphaZero depends in part on the exact board configuration, that can/does change significantly game to game. And predicting future game states does not work except in the most limited of circumstances. The best the AI can achieve is a generalized knowledge of how terrain affects movement and combat. It can apply those rules very well in limited situations and be a brilliant tactician, but so can humans. The AI clearly has the potential to be better at tactics, but how much better? And I don't think the AI can be significantly better in strategy without teaching us more about strategy. I think that people find it very hard to understand the total range of possibilities. The game starts with about 42 pieces on the board, all of which can move every turn, if they have a nearby leader. And there are 3 reinforcement turns which bring in another ~42 pieces each time. Excpect to have ~100 pieces maneuvering in the middle of the game. Exactly where each type of piece stands each turn, the exact order in which they are moved, exactly where terrain is in relation to each piece, as well as what the terrain is - different pieces get different effects - determine what attacks can be made each turn, and changing any of those conditions changes what happens *each turn*. I maintain that unless quantum computers work exactly as advetrised, the AI *cannot* effectively predict future game states to any overwhelmingly useful degree. Thus, based on monte carlo statistical approaches, such Ais can be at best only marginally better than the best humans/human teams.


Edit Form
Conduct Guidelines
This is a Chess variants website, not a general forum.
Please limit your comments to Chess variants or the operation of this site.
Keep this website a safe space for Chess variant hobbyists of all stripes.
Because we want people to feel comfortable here no matter what their political or religious beliefs might be, we ask you to avoid discussing politics, religion, or other controversial subjects here. No matter how passionately you feel about any of these subjects, just take it someplace else.
Avoid Inflammatory Comments
If you are feeling anger, keep it to yourself until you calm down. Avoid insulting, blaming, or attacking someone you are angry with. Focus criticisms on ideas rather than people, and understand that criticisms of your ideas are not personal attacks and do not justify an inflammatory response.
Quick Markdown Guide

By default, new comments may be entered as Markdown, simple markup syntax designed to be readable and not look like markup. Comments stored as Markdown will be converted to HTML by Parsedown before displaying them. This follows the Github Flavored Markdown Spec with support for Markdown Extra. For a good overview of Markdown in general, check out the Markdown Guide. Here is a quick comparison of some commonly used Markdown with the rendered result:

Top level header: <H1>

Block quote

Second paragraph in block quote

First Paragraph of response. Italics, bold, and bold italics.

Second Paragraph after blank line. Here is some HTML code mixed in with the Markdown, and here is the same <U>HTML code</U> enclosed by backticks.

Secondary Header: <H2>

  • Unordered list item
  • Second unordered list item
  • New unordered list
    • Nested list item

Third Level header <H3>

  1. An ordered list item.
  2. A second ordered list item with the same number.
  3. A third ordered list item.
Here is some preformatted text.
  This line begins with some indentation.
    This begins with even more indentation.
And this line has no indentation.

Alt text for a graphic image

A definition list
A list of terms, each with one or more definitions following it.
An HTML construct using the tags <DL>, <DT> and <DD>.
A term
Its definition after a colon.
A second definition.
A third definition.
Another term following a blank line
The definition of that term.