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The theoretical minimum has to be 16.5. As you stated, there must be 15 captures per side, and one move at the beginning. consider any other start than 1. e4 d5 or 1 d4 e5 : White must move something for Black to capture, giving 16.5 After 1. e4 d5 2. exd5 Qxd5 white has to make a move and cannot capture, giving 16.5 again. After 1. d4 e5 2. dxe5 Black must make the concession, giving 16.5 again